With six weeks until pitchers and catchers report, more than half of MLB Trade Rumors’ Top 50 free agents are still available.
Only six teams have spent $100 million or more so far this winter, the Giants among them, allocating $121.25 million to Jung Hoo Lee and Tom Murphy.
Although the front office struck out on its two top targets in the worst possible way — with Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto teaming up on the archrival Dodgers — the offseason hasn’t been a total dud for Farhan Zaidi and his crew.
They set out to get younger and more athletic, and signed about the only free agent who fit that profile, a 25-year-old center fielder with the charisma to one day grow into the face of the franchise. They wanted to commit to Patrick Bailey behind the plate, and brought in a veteran backup all but assuredly ending his predecessor’s time in the organization.
But after big talk of adding star power — prioritizing Ohtani and Yamamoto “above all other options,” according to an early report from MLB Network’s Jon Morosi — there are no more easy avenues to bolster the top of the roster.
A little under three months out from Opening Day at Petco Park (March 28), here’s an early look at how the 26-man is taking shape. Taking into account it should be RHP Joe Musgrove on the mound for the Padres…
Starting lineup
1. Jung Hoo Lee, CF
2. Thairo Estrada, 2B
3. LaMonte Wade Jr., 1B
4. Wilmer Flores, DH
5. Michael Conforto, LF
6. J.D. Davis, 3B
7. Mike Yastrzemski, RF
8. Patrick Bailey, C
9. Marco Luciano, SS
Bench: Mitch Haniger, Austin Slater, Tom Murphy, Casey Schmitt
Starting rotation
1. Logan Webb, RHP
2. Anthony DeSclafani, RHP
3. Ross Stripling, RHP
4. Kyle Harrison, LHP
5. Keaton Winn, RHP
Bullpen: Camilo Doval, Tyler Rogers, Taylor Rogers, Luke Jackson, Ryan Walker, Erik Miller, Tristan Beck, Sean Hjelle
IL: Alex Cobb (ETA: May/June)
That’s a roster that leaves a lot to be desired, yet has few clear holes, especially with what’s available on the free agent market.
“As free agents come off the board,” Zaidi said in December, “… we can get to a point where we’re making tradeoffs in investing playing time in our own young players versus bringing in free agents who could eat into that opportunity. We’re really aware of that.”
As currently constructed, the ZiPS projection system pegs them for 80-85 wins.
While the rotation may feel light until Cobb’s return, it also gets crowded quickly if Harrison, Winn, Beck and Hjelle get ample opportunities and with Carson Whisenhunt, Mason Black and other young arms on track to debut this year. Webb, meanwhile, projects to be the top starter in the majors, according to ZiPS.
The missing piece was a co-ace to pair with Webb, and after Yamamoto, it’s not clear there’s one left to the Giants’ liking. Likewise, Ohtani was the middle-of-the-order slugger needed to round out a lineup of complementary pieces, and the next-best remaining options all come with high price tags and risk profiles.
They could sign the reigning NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell, but they could also be turned off by his high asking price and an aversion to the strike zone that is just about the antithesis of the Giants’ pitching philosophy. Snell, 31, led the league in ERA but also walked the most batters in the majors.
Tagged with a qualifying offer, Snell would also cost any team that signs him a draft pick, whereas the only penalty that would come with Japanese left-hander Shōta Imanaga is the posting fee paid to his Nippon Pro Baseball club, the Yokohoma Baystars.
While Imanaga figures to come with a smaller price tag — ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported the total could reach nine figures — the 30-year-old is considered more of a middle-of-the-rotation starter. He posted a 3.18 ERA over eight seasons in Japan and must sign by next Thursday, when his 45-day posting window closes.
Lee set the franchise record for a free agent contract signed by a position player, and it’s likely Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman would exceed that figure. The question at hand is how much is the difference between Chapman and J.D. Davis, or Bellinger and Mike Yastrzemski/Austin Slater, worth?
It’s easier to open the checkbook for a player as unique as Ohtani, or even Yamamoto. The Giants coveted both and displayed it in their financial offers, as they did for Aaron Judge a winter earlier.
Bellinger, on the other hand, is only a season removed from a three-year stretch during which he hit .203. While he drastically reduced his strikeouts while posting his best statistical season since his MVP 2019, it came at the cost of hard contact, which he made at a career-low rate that ranked in the bottom 10% of the league.
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Chapman’s is the opposite story, where his consistently strong underlying metrics bely a downturn in offensive production.
The Giants’ superstar pursuit will continue next winter, when Juan Soto, Alex Bregman and Pete Alonso headline the free-agent class.
In the meantime, Zaidi said back in December, they are back to making “smart baseball decisions.”
“Certainly making acquisitions that get our fans excited is really important, but making acquisitions that excite people in the moment but wind up not panning out, that’s not going to be good business, either,” he said. “We’re just going to continue to rely heavily on our evaluations and players we think can really move the needle for us.”
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