SANTA CLARA – Before Nick Bosa was officially crowned the NFL Defensive Player of the Year last year, he worked through three playoff games without a sack, and, ultimately, without a Super Bowl ring.
His goals for the 49ers’ latest playoff run are simple and unselfish: “I just want to help my team win. Win three games. That’s my focus.”
Three playoff wins. That third win proved elusive the three previous times Bosa and the 49ers went to the playoffs under coach Kyle Shanahan. Each trip, they’ve won twice, then bailed.
If the 49ers (12-5) win Saturday’s divisional-round game against the Green Bay Packers (10-8), they’ll advance to their third straight NFC Championship Game and fourth in five seasons, two more wins away from their first Lombardi Trophy in 29 years.
As the No. 1 seed, the 49ers rested, recovered and, most importantly, avoided further injuries with a bye in the wild-card round while the No. 7-seed Packers won on the road to dispatch No. 2 Dallas.
“Everybody is on their trips to Cancun and Cabo,” defensive end Chase Young said of those players out of the Lombardi Trophy hunt. “So it’s a blessing, and just an opportunity we stress to each other that we have to take advantage of.”
Home-field advantage should help. The 49ers are 4-0 in playoff games at Levi’s Stadium, including two wins by both the Super Bowl-bound 2019 team and last year’s squad, which eliminated the Cowboys 19-12 before falling in the NFC Championship Game at Purdy-less Philadelphia.
Defensive end Randy Gregory was a part of that Cowboys team, and now he –and the Levi’s Stadium crowd — could show up big in the 49ers’ playoff debut against Jordan Love and the Packers.
“Sometimes people don’t give our fans much respect because this is like a tech town,” Gregory said. “But game day is the same as anywhere else I’ve been: great fans, great atmosphere, great weather obviously, and a winning culture and tradition here.”
They won 11 in a row at home, including postseason wins over Seattle and Dallas, before losing Oct. 29 to the Cincinnati Bengals, 31-17. Christmas night’s 33-19 defeat to the Baltimore Ravens proved humbling, too, more so than a Week 18 loss to the Los Angeles Rams as starters rested or were pulled by halftime.
Now come the upstart Packers, who’ve won 7-of-9 since a 3-6 start.
“They’re used to big games. They had to win to get in,” tight end George Kittle said. “They’re used to the pressure. They’re not scared. They’re playing us, and yeah, we’re a really good football team. But I think they’re excited for the opportunity to come in here and have a chance to spoil our season.”
Here is a five-key combination to unlock a win as 10-point favorites:
1. KEEP UP WITH JONES
An obvious sign of how well the Packers’ offense is humming is not necessarily quarterback Jordan Love’s rise but rather running back Aaron Jones’ hot streak. He has crested the 100-yard rushing mark in four straight games. The 49ers have not allowed a 100-yard back in 44 straight games, and Jones has never run past the century mark in six career games against the 49ers, including the past two playoff meetings.
Defensive tackle Arik Armstead returns from a five-game absence and needs to put down that tender foot of his to rally a slightly suspect run defense.
“We’ve played against him a lot and he’s really a unique running back with his slashing ability,” Armstead said. “He finds the hole. He’s able to crease, slash and get yards. He’s not a real big guy but he runs tough.”
2. MAKE USE OF McCAFFREY
Christian McCaffrey’s legs are ready to run after getting three weeks to recover from his last game – and a season in which he amassed an NFL-best 1,459 yards. He is the fourth player since 1970 to go wire-to-wire in a season atop the league’s rushing chart.
Is it asking too much, after his Dec. 31 calf strain, for him to put forth a record-setting effort against the Packers? Remember Green Bay’s past two playoff visits? Colin Kaepernick rushed for 181 yards and two touchdowns in a wild-card win at Candlestick in January 2013, and Raheem Mostert set a franchise record with 220 rushing yards and four touchdowns in a January 2020 victory for the NFC Championship.
“Raheem had a great one. I definitely have seen that one,” McCaffrey said, “But it was (four) years ago. A lot of things change in (four) years. We’re going to have to bring it every single snap, every single play and see what happens.”
As determined as McCaffrey is to carry the offense, the 49ers figure to dish some carries to Deebo Samuel, whose third-down run two years ago in Lambeau Field set up Robbie Gould’s winning field goal in a divisional-round upset of the No. 1-seeded Packers. Also available is Elijah Mitchell, who’s scored in each of the past two games and ran for 80 yards in Week 17 at Washington.
The Packers’ run defense ranked 28th in the regular season (128.3 yards per game), and it yielded 70 rushing yards in the first half to the Cowboys in their failed comeback from a 27-0 hole.
3. PURDY’S REPRISAL
The NFL’s most overlooked story all season is Brock Purdy’s recovery from a torn elbow ligament in last season’s NFC Championship Game defeat. Sure, he’s thrown for a franchise-record 4,280 yards and has made the Pro Bowl. But does everyone really grasp the depths of this comeback, from March 10 surgery that was delayed a month, to a limited pitch count in training camp, to a bye-week revival for a late-season playoff push?
Of the eight starting quarterbacks left in these playoffs, seven were first-round draft picks, while Purdy famously checked in as the 262nd and final pick of the 2022 draft. “Super proud of him,” left tackle Trent Williams said. “And I just hope he continues to blaze trails and show people that draft status is just something that happens on draft day. Whatever happens after that is up to you.”
That draft stature was a trendier storyline last year. This time around, his comeback should be spotlighted. He’s said his arm feels stronger than ever, and it’s shown his NFL-leading proficiency (113 passer rating; 9.64 yards per attempt). His mental strength has also improved, as he’s learned from mistakes like his four-interception fiasco on Christmas against the Ravens.
“Everybody’s feeling good. Then boom, you make a mistake,” recalled Purdy, who then emphasized the need for better consistency and decision-making. “… I took some stuff away from it, but at the end of the day, we’re going to find out on Saturday.”
4. PASS-RUSH FRUSTRATION
The 49ers’ past four playoff wins over the Packers involved conquering Aaron Rodgers. His successor, Love, is on a tear, with 21 touchdown passes and one interception in the past nine games. The 49ers must cool him off with a revived pass rush and sticky coverage.
The Packers’ rushing success has allowed Love to flourish with play-action passing. “That’s where you see him being extremely effective in taking the shots down the field and finding an open receiver,” defensive coordinator Steve Wilks said. “… We’ve just got to try to mix things up on him a little bit to give him something to think about and figure out where he needs to go with the ball.”
Love has a bevy of young receivers to target: Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson and tight ends Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft. The 49ers’ secondary boasts Pro Bowler Charvarius Ward and playoff-proven Deommodore Lenoir, but there are injury issues with No. 3 cornerback Ambry Thomas (hand) as well as safeties Tashaun Gipson (quadriceps), Ji’Ayir Brown (knee) and Logan Ryan (groin).
Alas, the engine that perennially drives the 49ers’ hopes is their defensive front, and while Bosa often commands double teams or extra protection, Young and Gregory need to seize this opportunity as they fill in for 17-game starter Clelin Ferrell (knee).
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5. NO SPECIAL TEAMS ISSUES
Rookie kicker Jake Moody reignited concerns with two misses in his last outing at Levi’s Stadium, pushing both a 38-yard field-goal attempt and a point-after kick. Moody, it turns out, was battling an illness, to which he said days later: “What the conditions are and how I’m feeling doesn’t matter. I’ve got to power through it.”
Moody had made his previous 60 point-after kicks, and he’d generally flown under the radar all season with a glaring exception: missing a potential winning field goal in Cleveland for the 49ers’ first loss.
Compounding the extra focus on Moody is the fact he replaced Robbie Gould, who heroically made a winning field goal in snowy Lambeau in that January 2022 upset; Gould left as a free agent last spring, did not kick this season and announced his retirement last month.
The Packers have their own kicker issues. Rookie Anders Carlson, drafted in the sixth round, has missed a kick in nine of their past 11 games, and his sixth PAT miss came last game.
Concern also exists in terms of return specialists. The 49ers’ Ray-Ray McCloud is getting back into action after fracturing his ribs two months ago. The Packers tout an All-Pro kick returner in Keisean Nixon.
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