SANTA CLARA — Contrary to all evidence this season, the 49ers can win without Deebo Samuel in the lineup.
Now, we don’t know if the 49ers’ do-it-all receiver will play in Sunday’s NFC Championship Game against the Lions. Samuel’s injured shoulder has no disqualifying structural damage, but, according to Niners coach Kyle Shanahan, it “hurts.”
I bet.
Perhaps Shanahan knows if Samuel will play on Sunday.
Maybe not.
We probably won’t truly know until kickoff because of gamesmanship.
But after losing both games Samuel didn’t start this regular season, and nearly falling in the divisional round to the Packers after Samuel’s second-quarter injury, the absence of No. 19 looms large over this massive game.
Luckily for quarterback Brock Purdy & Co., this Niners offense is not dependent on one man.
But without Deebo, the Niners will have to make some serious adjustments.
Here’s what they’ll need to do to put 30-plus points on the board (the requisite number to win, in my estimation) on Sunday:
Commit to first-down runs
We saw Purdy “can” a lot of plays on Saturday.
Shanahan, the offensive playcaller, gives Purdy that power at the line of scrimmage — if the quarterback doesn’t like what he sees in the opposing defense, he can dump the original play and go to another.
Only the folks in the huddle and on the headsets know how many times the 49ers were supposed to run it with Christian McCaffrey on first down against the Packers, and they aren’t snitching.
I can tell you that the 49ers had 25 first-down plays against the Packers. They ran on 11.
And nine of those run-first series resulted in another first down.
Football is an immensely complicated sport, but this seems pretty cut-and-dry: the Niners need to run the ball more.
Why wouldn’t you? The Niners have the best running back in the NFL — a player that can neutralize a numbers disadvantage with jukes and spins.
A well-established run game should also make Purdy’s life as a passer easier.
But not only should the 49ers be running the ball more on first down, but they should be running them from under center.
The Niners were in shotgun 35 percent of the time on first town this season and 46 percent overall.
This is not the Shanahan offense we once knew — an under-center attack where play-action predicated everything in the pass game.
No, this is more like Purdy’s attack in the Big 12 at Iowa State.
And that’s all well and good when Samuel is on the field.
After all, Samuel is the scheme. Just get him the ball and everything takes care of itself — running lanes widen, other receivers become more open, and the defense becomes confused beyond repair.
But without Samuel, the Niners need to manifest all those necessary changes with actual scheme.
Credit to the Niners for being pragmatic this season, empowering Purdy and putting him in comfortable situations, but true pragmatism calls for a pro-style offense on Sunday.
That means Purdy under center, handing the ball off to McCaffrey more often than not on first down, and then using those runs to manipulate the Detroit defense with play-action passes.
Purdy averaged 10.2 yards per pass attempt on play-action this season — a massive number. Pro Football Focus rated him 95 (out of 100) on such plays.
Play-action is the path forward for the Niners, with or without Samuel.
But it must be the foundation of the offensive game plan if he doesn’t play.
Do not abandon the middle of the field
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This is easier said than done.
The Niners don’t lack playmakers if Samuel sits. There’s McCaffrey, but also George Kittle — the best tight end in the NFL. Brandon Aiyuk was an All-Pro this season. Jauan Jennings is a third-down stud who showed he can make plays on different downs, too. Ray-Ray McCloud has the speed to take the top off a defense. Even journeyman receiver Chris Conley played well last week.
But Samuel is the player that opens up the middle of the field for the 49ers — his drag and dig routes create chaos for linebackers and defensive backs, who have to either run with him or hand him off to another defender (or two). Much like Steph Curry on the basketball court, Samuel has “gravity.”
Detroit is one of the NFL’s worst teams at defending over-the-middle routes. (Offenses had a jaw-dropping 0.87 expected points added on intermediate passes over the middle against the Lions this season.)
Sans-Samuel, someone else will have to take on that role of going over the middle. Aiyuk can do the job, but he’s more valuable on the outside. McCloud and Jennings can do it, but they won’t demand the attention Samuel naturally garners.
Kittle is the guy to do the job.
And that’s where things become complicated.
The Lions’ best defensive player is defensive end Aiden Hutchinson. He, like Nick Bosa, moves up and down the defensive line, but let’s be honest: he’s going to spend all game lined up on Niners’ right tackle Colton McKivitz. Why go up against the best tackle in the NFL, Trent Williams, if you don’t have to?
McKivitiz has been… fine… this season. But he is the only Niners offensive lineman to allow more than 10 sacks this season.
Hutchinson’s ability, paired with McKivitz’s susceptibility, would — under normal circumstances — necessitate Kittle, a brilliant blocker, to stay in line and help the Niners’r right tackle. A double-team with him as the second man can neutralize even the best pass rushers.
So the Niners will have to pick Kittle’s main responsibility on Sunday — open the middle of the field as a receiver or neutralize Detroit’s only game-changer as a blocker?
Yes, the Niners can mix and match, but Kittle can’t do both on every play, and getting the priority wrong on even one play could be enough to turn the game.
I say the Niners use him as a pass catcher and cross their fingers with McKivitz 1-on-1.
It’s hard to imagine the Niners putting 30 on the board with Kittle as a blocker.
Brandon Aiyuk has to be a No. 1
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This is the obvious one, but I note it because Aiyuk — one of the best receivers in the NFL — has only 57 yards total in his last two games, with a long catch of 12 yards.
If that happens again on Sunday, something has gone horribly wrong, and Niners players will be flying to Cabo — not Las Vegas for Super Bowl LVIII — next weekend.
The Lions’ defense is softer than a down comforter on the outside. Baker Mayfield — a middling quarterback — threw for 350 yards last week, attacking Detroit’s cornerbacks.
If the Niners want to do the same thing (a good strategy), that means throwing the ball to Aiyuk.
There was arguably no better team at challenging deep and outside the numbers than the Niners this season. That’s where Detroit is weakest. That’s where Aiyuk does his work.
He must be flirting with 100 yards with or without Samuel on Sunday.
And if he can do that, the Niners’ offense should be in good shape, no matter what.
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