The “Looking Glass” ponders economic and real estate trends through two distinct lenses: the optimist’s “glass half-full” and the pessimist’s “glass half-empty.”
Buzz: California easily remains the nation’s largest economy – but can it stay as the world’s fifth-biggest?
Source: My trusty spreadsheet compared new stats from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the International Monetary Fund on gross domestic product, a broad measure of business output used to compare the size of economies.
Debate: Will India surpass California on the theoretical GDP scorecard, looking at the state as an international economic force?
Glass half-full
California’s GDP grew at a 1.2% annual rate in 2024’s first quarter. That pushed the value of the state’s business output at $3.99 trillion a year.
So, just how big is that?
It’s 50% larger than Texas and its $2.66 trillion in GDP.
Only three other states are in the trillion-dollar club: New York at $2.23 trillion, Florida at $1.65 trillion, and Illinois at $1.11 trillion. Pennsylvania should join soon, as it’s only $1.6 billion short!
Or consider this: California’s output is larger than the nation’s 25 smallest state economies. Yes, half of the US.
Glass half-empty
Related Articles
Fraud-tied San Jose condo project is complete, allowing sales to launch
Possible deal to sell San Jose shopping center hits uncertain timeline
Uber, Lyft, DoorDash workers remain contractors after California Supreme Court ruling
US Economy grew faster than expected last quarter
PG&E profits soar, powered by increases in electricity and gas revenue
But what about the Golden State’s bragging rights as the world’s fifth-largest economy, as measured by GDP?
It’s a spot California has held since 2017 behind the US, China, Germany and Japan. But it now appears likely that No. 6 India will soon top California on the GDP charts.
This year, India’s economy is projected by the IMF to grow 7% to $4.06 trillion.
California’s economy – if it can keep pace with the US economy, and it did not to start 2024 – would grow by 2.6%. That would value the Golden State economy at $4.05 trillion.
So for now, 2024 is a “too close to call” situation.
But in 2025, if the IMF’s crystal ball is correct, Indian will move up a notch.
Next year, India’s economy is projected to grow by 6.5% to $4.33 trillion.
California, if it can match the forecasted 1.9% US growth, would produce $4.12 trillion of output.
Bottom line
India has 1.44 billion residents – nearly 40 times California’s 39 million. So there’s little shame in becoming the world’s sixth-largest economy.
Or look at this over-hyped contest this way: India’s GDP equals $2,600 per person. Californians, by the same math, produce $101,000 per resident.
Jonathan Lansner is business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at [email protected]
+ There are no comments
Add yours