San Jose Sharks coach David Quinn still wonders, jokingly, what might have been.
As the NHL Draft Lottery was taking place last May, the Sharks had the first three numbers drawn, 5, 13, and 4, and just needed a 12 to pop up in the bingo-style machine. Instead, a 9 came up, giving the Chicago Blackhawks the winning combination, and the right to select Connor Bedard, the NHL’s next superstar-in-waiting.
The Sharks, it can be argued, hurt their chances of winning the lottery by capturing three straight games late in the season and finishing one point ahead of the Blackhawks. Going into the lottery, San Jose had 95 four-number combinations and Chicago had 115.
“I was (upset) about the three-game winning streak we went on, and we ended up getting fourth,” Quinn said. “I thought, ‘Why did we go on that winning streak in March?’”
Still, it would appear the Sharks have a decent chance of drafting the NHL’s next big thing, Macklin Celebrini.
The Sharks entered their game Tuesday with the Blackhawks having lost 14 of their last 15 games and in 32nd place with a 10-31-3 record for 23 points. Chicago was three points ahead, with Ottawa and Anaheim at 30 and 31 points, respectively, before Tuesday’s games.
If the Sharks stay in last place, they’ll have a 25.5 percent chance of winning the lottery and selecting first overall at June’s NHL Draft in Las Vegas. The consensus top prospect available is center Celebrini, a dynamic forward who could become an impactful player in the NHL as soon as next season.
The team that finishes with the second-worst record in the NHL will have a 13.5% of winning the lottery, with the third-worst at 11.5% and the fourth-worst at 9.5%.
“It’s so far out of your control,” Quinn said. “I say this a lot: when you’re going through what we’re going through and what Chicago is going through, it sounds great in June, July and August. But then you sit through it and go through it, and, boy, is losing hard.”
Getting Celebrini, a former Jr. Shark whose dad, Dr. Rick Celebrini, is the Warriors’ Vice President of Player Health and Performance, at the end of this could be worth the pain.
Mack Celebrini, 17, is having a spectacular freshman season at Boston University, as he entered this week with 29 points in 17 games, a points-per-game average that ranked second among all NCAA Division I men’s hockey players.
Will Smith, who the Sharks took at No. 4 overall last year, has 27 points in 19 games for Boston College and is fresh off winning a gold medal with Team USA at the IIHF World Jr. Championship in Sweden, with nine points in seven games. Celebrini also led Team Canada at that event with eight points in five games.
Sharks fans, and likely the team’s front office, are likely already salivating at the thought of what it will be like to have two such dynamic players like Celebrini and Smith in their lineup for years to come.
Quinn, Boston University’s head coach from 2013 to 2018, said he’s aware of “what an elite talent (Celebrini) is and what a complete game he plays for a kid at such a young age. How intelligent he is.
“People rave about him in a lot of areas and I think he’s earned everything he’s gotten. When you’re that age and you show up at the world juniors and are Canada’s best player. I think that really says it all.”
It would not be a surprise, though, to see the Sharks leapfrog the Blackhawks in the overall standings.
San Jose’s remaining strength of schedule, per tankathon.com, is considered the easiest in the NHL, with their opponents combining for a .519 points percentage right now. Chicago’s remaining opponents have a combined .540 points percentage.
The Sharks are also about to get a bit healthier with the expected return of Logan Couture and Nico Sturm in the next week or two. For Chicago, Bedard, who had 33 points in 39 games, will be out for another five to seven weeks recovering from a broken jaw.
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Other players out right now for Chicago are Nick Foligno (broken finger), Taylor Hall (knee, out for season), Andreas Athanasiou (lower body, week-to-week), Tyler Johnson (undisclosed) and Anthony Beauvillier (wrist).
Still, finishing last in the NHL guarantees nothing. Since 1995, when the draft lottery was introduced, only 11 teams that have finished last in the NHL’s overall standings retained the No. 1 overall selection, although it has happened three times in the last six years.
The Sharks and Blackhawks know that all too well.
“I think he’s an incredible talent,” Quinn said of Bedard. “He’s everything everybody thought he was going be and probably a little bit more. You hate to see anybody get hurt. I know how much he means to their franchise and I know how much he means to the league, and it would have been a great challenge for us.”
“The lottery is a lottery,” Sharks defenseman Marc-Edouard Vlasic said. “It’s luck.”
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