If you’ve felt like this January has been perhaps a little too dry, this weekend may change your mind, with a steady stream of rainfall over the Bay Area across a four-day period, according to the National Weather Service.
NWS meteorologist Roger Gass said Thursday that the upcoming storms will operate in three “waves,” with the first arriving midday Friday and continuing into Saturday. Amounts during this period were expected to be modest in the inland portions of the region like the South Bay and the East Bay.
Totals between Friday morning and Saturday evening were forecast to reach between one and one-and-a-half inches in San Francisco and Santa Cruz, no more than one inch in Concord and less than half an inch in San Jose and Livermore. The lower totals in the valleys are a result of the rain shadow effect, where outlying mountain ranges keep storm clouds from bringing their full effect overhead Gass said.
“The rainfall across the region is going to be greatest in the coastal ranges,” Gass said. “The rain shadow effect is definitely going to be in play.”
The next round of rain is expected to begin by midday Friday and continue into Saturday night. The greatest amount of rainfall will occur in the coastal ranges with lesser amounts southward and points inland. #CAwx #BayAreaWX pic.twitter.com/XvldUGbVJl
— NWS Bay Area (@NWSBayArea) January 18, 2024
Saturday evening and night will likely be the driest point of the weekend, Gass added, especially in the valleys.
The next two waves of the weather event were set to arrive Sunday and Monday. That’ll be the period with the strongest downpours in the Bay Area, according to the NWS.
Rainfall predictions between 10 p.m. Saturday and 4 p.m. Monday included up to one-and-a-half inches in San Francisco, Concord and San Jose, and up to one inch in Livermore. Santa Cruz can expect between two and three inches of rain during that time frame.
Rain will increase in intensity and coverage Saturday night and persist throughout Monday. The greatest focus will be along the coastal ranges with lesser amounts in the rain-shadowed valleys. Stay tuned! #CAwx #BayAreaWX pic.twitter.com/r6aDRSHXqW
— NWS Bay Area (@NWSBayArea) January 18, 2024
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While the rainfall should be steady throughout the weekend, Gass hesitated to call it the strongest event of the winter thus far after waves and rain hit the coast hard in late December.
Still, despite an expected dousing, the series of storms aren’t expected to land with nearly enough strength as the atmospheric river that clobbered the region at this time in 2023.
“It is not going to be like last year,” Gass said. “We are not expecting much flooding, especially in the interior valley.”
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